China“s car export boom faces rising global headwinds

2026.04.13 by GE Cheng China's car exports hit a fresh record in March 2026. But rising trade barriers, supply chain disruptions and slowing domestic demand are making the global push more complex. Passenger vehicle exports reached 695,000 units, up 74.3% year on year. New-energy vehicles accounted for more than half, at 349,000 units, a surge of 139.9%. This extends a strong run. China exported more than 7 million vehicles in 2025, up 21%, and has remained the world's largest auto exporter for three consecutive years after overtaking Japan in 2023. External conditions, however, are turning less supportive. In the United States, tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles have been raised following Donald Trump's return, while the Inflation Reduction Act continues to exclude Chinese battery supply chains from subsidies. In Europe, an ongoing anti-subsidy investigation has left automakers facing uncertainty over tariffs and pricing commitments. Key overseas markets are also shifting. Russia, once China's largest single export destination, has increased scrappage fees on imported vehicles. China's auto exports to the country fell nearly 60% year on year in the first nine months of 2025. Logistics is becoming another pressure point. Instability in the Middle East has raised risks for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, prompting some vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. Freight costs have risen, while delivery times have stretched. Oil prices — at one point exceeding $110 per barrel — have also pushed up material and transport costs. Pressure is also building at home. China's auto sales reached 34.4 million units in 2025, up 9.4%, but growth excluding exports slowed to 6.7%. Industry forecasts suggest total sales growth could ease to around 1% in 2026. Price competition is intensifying, squeezing margins and extending payment cycles. Some export businesses are approaching breakeven. These pressures are forcing automakers to rethink their overseas strategies. At a Beijing forum on smart electric vehicles held on April 11–12, industry participants signaled a shift away from a pure export-led model toward deeper integration into overseas markets. SU Bo, a former vice minister of industry and information technology, said overseas localization would become an urgent task. OUYANG Minggao, a professor at Tsinghua University and an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said electric vehicles remain China's most competitive global product. Two approaches are emerging in response. Some Chinese automakers are moving toward deeper localization, building assembly plants and supplier networks in overseas markets. The aim is to reduce tariff exposure and secure political support by embedding more directly in local economies. This often involves training local workers and integrating into regional supply chains rather than simply exporting vehicles. Companies including Geely have expanded manufacturing footprints in markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia as part of this push. Others are relying on existing global networks. They use China as a manufacturing and R&D base, while relying on global partners for distribution and brand positioning. This model allows faster expansion with lower upfront investment, but remains more exposed to tariffs and market volatility, executives and analysts say. Fragmentation is emerging as a risk. Industry participants warn that intense competition among Chinese firms overseas could replicate domestic price wars, undermining margins and weakening bargaining power. A broader shift is now under discussion. Executives say the next phase of global expansion will require closer coordination across supply chains, financing and technical standards. Rather than competing as individual firms, Chinese automakers may need to operate as integrated ecosystems in overseas markets. China's carmakers now face a more complex reality. Export volumes remain strong, but external risks are rising and domestic growth is slowing. The next phase of expansion will depend less on how many cars are shipped abroad, and more on how deeply companies can establish a presence in overseas markets. That shift points to a move beyond price-driven exports, toward deeper local operations and greater influence over industry standards.